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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would serve as assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.