A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
